(this is the part where it gets exciting)

Playing catch up with gym stuff. (Lol post that literally took me five hours?)

Here is a playlist of team finals at the 2008 European Championships.

Here is a playlist of team finals/all around at the 2008 Pacific Rim Championships.

Euros, overall, had some fairly lackluster gymnastics going on considering the level of competition that it usually is. But at least it has awesome British commentators who actually talk about every gymnast and even GASP discuss their actual routines! PAC, unfortunately, was on NBC (of course!) so it was graced with the inane commentary of Tim, Elfie, and, my nemesis, Al Trautwig. As such, instead of talking about anything of any use they spent all their time rather pointlessly discussing Nastia's boundless awesomeness (while ignoring a fairly major floor error; yes, she was clearly tired, but you could say something besides that and...DEAFENING SILENCE?!) and being grossly patronizing as they exploited Darlene Hill's grief. Classy!

That said, some routines:

Nansy Damianova (Canada) on floor.

Despite all of the controversy surrounding the fact that she is 99.9999% sure to be going to Beijing instead of Canadian national champion Kristina Vaculik, I like Nansy. The height on her tumbling is wonderful.


Samantha Shapiro (USA) on beam and bars.


First, I love this girl. Beautiful, beeeautiful gymnast. Second, I remain completely shocked that they showed all four of Shapiro's routines and only ONE of Rebecca Bross's. When it comes to the current US juniors, Bross is so clearly set to be the It Girl of next quad already with the kind of story that the NBC trio drools over: she not only trains at WOGA with Nastia but is actually coached by Valeri, she's the reigning junior national champion in the all-around and three events just like Nastia and Shawn before her, and, even while being paced for next quad and not this year, she's beaten Shawn aka world floor champion on floor twice. And, of course, she won the junior all around here too (with a score that topped every senior but Nastia). Yet NBC only shows her...on her worst event? Inexplicable! Even for them. At any rate, enough Bross complaints. I would like very much to see Shapiro increase both her difficulty and her consistency and end up on some international podiums next quad.


My beloved Peng Peng Lee (Canada) on bars.

Oh Peng Peng, always going for broke. Please be consistent next quad, please please please. YOU COULD DOMINATE, BABY. YOU COULD.


Aforementioned Canadian National Champion Kristina Vaculik on beam.

I am a sucker for a double turn on beam. <3


Darlene Hill (USA) on floor.

So much poweeeer. Also, lots of front tumbling! And do I actually spy...artistry?!?!11 I wish two things wrt Darlene Hill: that she had better control and that her chances for the Olympic team were not so low.


Dasha Joura (Australia) on bars.

Oh Dasha. I wish you had more difficulty. Sure you can't do a stalder shoot properly, but then again neither can the Chinese.


Nastia Liukin (USA) on vault and beam.

For once the NBC trio are right about something! The extra conditioning Nastia has been up to completely shows in that vault. It's not just a million miles better than what she was doing at Worlds last year, but it's noticeably better than she did at SCAM in March. Lovely.

And the clear plan to eliminate every possible deduction from her beam bears fruit in the form of a 9.8 execution score awarded by an actual full panel of international judges. To put this in perspective: they essentially gave her a perfect ten. I still want a second layout in that series tho!


So, you know, those were some recent comps, but what's REALLY been the hot topic of discussion are Olympic team selections. Australia had its combination Nats/Trials recently. Lauren Mitchell had a terrible meet, but she and Dasha will still be on that Olympic team if Australia wants any chance of doing anything. The Chinese team seems to have four locks (Cheng Fei, Yang Yilin, He Kexin, and Jiang Yuyuan) with the rest being a rollercoaster of possibilities. Though many a conversation about the Chinese team turns into discussion of their systematic age falsification. Particularly since two of their totes underage gymnasts have matched Nastia's bars A-score, thus making it a strong possibility that they will snatch up some medals (including gold) from Liukin, Ksenia Semenova (Russia), and Beth Tweddle (Great Britain) aka the top bars contenders who aren't cheating! Then there's the fact that with their stable of 13- and 14-year-olds China has managed to compile a team A-score total with a lead over projected US totals that means they could absorb three falls in team finals, and well...yeah. Lol controversy.

AT ANY RATE, let's talk about the US team selection! Soon the Gymnastics Marathon Gauntlet Deathmatch that the USAG likes to do every Olympic year begins. Indeed, US Nationals are this week and Olympic Trials are two weeks after that. Both are grueling two day competitions. The top twelve from Nats will go on to Trials. After Trials, a training squad will be selected to ultimately compete in an internal test event/competition at the Karoyli Ranch. THEN the team will finally be chosen very close to the games themselves. (Though, top two finishes at Trials get a guaranteed spot on the team barring proving themselves unfit during the internal camps.)

There are a lot of gymnasts in the mix, though some have much better chances than others!


To start and to get it out of the way:



Shawn Johnson, Alicia Sacramone, and Nastia Liukin are locks. They are on the team. And have been since last fall. They each offer multiple indispensable scores for team finals and if any of them gets injured the US team is totally screwed! Which makes having them compete 16 routines each, not counting subsequent camps, during the Marathon Guantlet Deathmatch that is selection is RETARDED, but whatevs. (Though, maybe only 12 routines for Alicia since she seems to be the single US gymnast that Martha Karoyli has decided to understand the concept of SPECIALIST with and she wasn't made to compete bars at Nationals last year.) It also means that the other three members of the team will be selected to fill in the holes that Nastia, Shawn, and Sac leave.

SO:

Vault- Alicia, Shawn, ?
Bars- Nastia, ?, ?
Beam - Alicia, Nastia, Shawn
Floor - Alicia, Shawn, ?

Four holes, three spots, a ton of possibilities!


Samantha Peszek

Possible Contributions: floor and vault.

Background: She was a member of the 2007 Worlds team which, of course, won gold. She contributed only on vault in team finals and it was rumored at that time that the reason she was actually on the team and not the alternate (instead of Bridget Sloan) was due to Ivana Hong having an injury that prevented her from vaulting her DTY. You may also recall Sam from this year's American Cup where she hit, hit, hit, and hit to come in third all around behind Nastia and Shawn and, more importantly, ahead of Shayla Worley.

Analysis: Sam's chosen upgrades this year have mystified me somewhat, since there was quite a concentration on her bars, which are her worst event. As the above breakdown clearly shows, bars is a HUGE weak spot, yes. But Sam isn't even going to better Shawn on bars and Shawn isn't who you want up on bars in the Olympic team finals when your main rival is China. So that's a bizzaro dead end that I can only owe to the US's nostalgic and pointless pushing of all arounders when specialists are what is called for. Sam's beam has high potential and she hit well at the American Cup, but her history on that event (and subsequent performance in Italy) indicate that that was, in all likelihood, a one-off. Putting her up on beam in team finals in the Olympics would just be stupid. Her DTY is competent and consistent, so that's one in the bag. There's been a rumored Amanar upgrade for a very long time and if that were to materialize it would bump up her usefulness quite a bit. Then there's her floor. It's great on paper, with upgrades rumored to match Shawn's level of difficulty. However, in practice, Sam has displayed an inability to do her double double on anything but AAI floors (the kind the US uses and that WON'T be used in Beijing) and she didn't come anywhere near breaking 15 in prelims at Worlds last year. Essentially, the potential is there, but her ability to actually get the kind of score the US would need in international competition is unproven.

Outlook: Despite everything I've just said above, Sam has been rumored since SCAM to be one of Martha's favourites and a virtual lock for the team?! Personally, I don't see a guaranteed contribution from her other than vault and, even there, without the Amanar...she's not the only US gymnast with a DTY. I mean, I'll still grant her that because hers is the most internationally tested. I'd say put her up on floor, but only if she rocks all of her sets at Nationals and Trials.



Shayla Worley

Possible Contributions: bars, beam, floor (?).

Background: Shayla was the 2007 National all around silver medalist and a member of the world champion team doing bars and floor in finals. In 2008, she had a disastrous meet at the American Cup, finishing behind Sam Peszek after botching her bars dismount, falling off of beam, and balking on her triple twist on floor.

Analysis: In 2007, Shayla had the distinction of being the only girl in the US besides Nastia who could score well on bars internationally. But this year she hasn't actually upgraded at all and a few players from the first half of the quad (namely, Ashley Priess and Chellsie Memmel) who had receded into the background (mostly due to injury) have resurfaced with bar routines at camp that reportedly match or surpass the scoring potential that Shayla has demonstrated. Despite being used on team finals at worlds, for Beijing they're going to be looking for someone to break 15 as the 14.6+ Shayla was putting up will not be adequate. Shayla has a lovely and varied beam set, but troubles on her arabian and some general shakiness saw her ALREADY lose her lead-off spot on that event to Alicia last year. And with Alicia's consistency and rumored upgrade to a 7.0 A-score, it's not likely Shayla will be able to contest for that since the US is so strong on beam that she'd need to completely blow Alicia out of the water to make anyone think twice. Then there's Shayla's health. She's chronically injured and was originally rumored to be pulling out of SCAM due to yet another injury, but she competed anyway. And, well, results vindicate the injury rumor. Then, she left a recent camp early (which is Not Done, let me tell you) to go get x-rays for something going on with her back which casts further doubt on whether she will even be unbroken enough to really go after a spot.

Outlook: In 2008, Shayla has unfortunately lost her status of virtual lock who people chatter about possibly challenging Shawn or Nastia for an all around spot to Sam Peszek and become the one everyone is assuming will almost definitely be left home. She can probably put up a 15.8 on bars in team finals, which would be welcome. But that's only a probably because of her inconsistency on her dismount. It's looking like Shayla's best bet for a shot at the team is to hit, hit, hit her bars at Nats and Trials AND outscore Memmel and Priess.



Chellsie Memmel

Potential Contributions: bars, floor (?), beam (?).

Background: Chellsie is one of the veterans of the current US national team. She moved up to senior in 2003 and was second alternate for the Worlds team that year. But after a million unfortunate injuries, Chellsie ended up being called in, competed all around spectacularly in team finals and led the US team to their first ever world championship, and then went on to become co-world champion on bars. But she got injured and was subsequently made an alternate for the Olympic team. Chellsie made the decision to press on in pursuit of her Olympic dream and started off the quad as one of the US's Big Four (along with Liukin, Sacramone, and Jana Bieger). She and Nastia, particularly, went head-to-head a lot and Chellsie was the one who infamously won the world all around championship by .001 over Nastia in 2005. In 2006, Chellsie once again proved her rock status at worlds when she injured her shoulder during her bars routine in team finals, but went on to finish the competition anyway. That injury is the one from which she's been recovering ever since, pretty much. She appeared at Nationals last year and only competed floor and didn't score well. Then she competed all around again at the Beijing Test Event, but had watered down routines and was outperformed by 2007 worlds team alternate Bridget Sloan.

Analysis: Chellsie is an extremely solid and consistent all arounder or, at least, she has been in the past. The last time anyone saw her floor it was...not pretty, to say the least and recently at a small-practically-internal meet, she was only vaulting a yurchenko full instead of her usual DTY. She also lost the all around competition to Ivana Hong . And I have no idea what she's doing on beam. But at the same meet during event finals she suddenly popped up with a 6.9 A-score on bars and broke 16 in her final score.

Outlook: Chellsie has never been politically favoured by USAG (she's never won a national title!) and her form and artistry have deteriorated noticeably over the years, BUT I would hazard to say that no US gymnast currently competing is a more solid and consistent gymnast in a team situation. And the international judges don't seem to have it out for Chellsie the way that the national ones do. While her status on the other three events is essentially a total mystery right now, if Chellsie is hitting her bar sets during the Gauntlet, her ticket is probably punched. Or at least, probably should be.



Ivana Hong

Possible Contributions: vault, beam (?).

Background: Ivana Hong was the youngest of the baby!seniors last year. She was a member of the world champion team, but did not actually go up on a single event in team finals after failing to break 15 with hit routines in prelims. She is probably most remembered around here as that one gymnast who was so pretty and artistic that I put up one of her routines in every explanatory post.

Analysis: Ivana Hong is...problematic. There have been many rumors all this year about various upgrades for her on bars and floor, but no one has actually SEEN her compete. She took the all around title at a recent small-practically-internal meet over Chellsie Memmel and Ashley Priess but in the grand scheme of things that's probably not going to mean much. Despite her impeccable form and presentation, she has never proven a high scoring potential on any event but vault. And even her DTY is untested internationally.

Outlook: Unless Ivana can show upgrades, consistency with said upgrades, and a standout event (that is not beam) it's highly unlikely that she'll be anything more than an alternate.



Bridget Sloan

Possible Contributions: floor, bars.

Background: Bridget was a baby!senior in 2007, but didn't actually decide to compete as a senior until the year was half over. She was a virtual unknown when she was selected as an alternate to the worlds team and it was said much later that the main thing that kept Bridget as an alternate was that she didn't quite seem to be mentally ready. Bridget went on to compete at the Beijing Olympic Test Event where she competed well and consistently and took third in the all around ahead of returning veteran Chellsie Memmel. Bridget was supposed to compete in Italy early this year, but sustained a knee injury that kept her out of the competition.

Analysis: Bridget apparently had a very good DTY early in the year at a camp, but her knee injury leaves the status of that unsure. However, during her knee injury she was said to be upgrading her bars, which were already nice (barring some uncharacteristically sloppy foot form on her releases). She was also said to be upgrading her floor which is clean, clean, clean, clean and could potentially score very well.

Outlook: After the Test Event Bridget was considered a dark horse for the team. I think she's probably still in that position. She could potentially be a lead off performer on floor and with a rumored 6.8 bars A-score, she could contribute there as well. For Bridget her chances will depend on her hitting (which she should since she's consistent) and on her outscoring some of the other contenders on bars. However, if she could pull out that good DTY, that would help even more.



Jana Bieger

Possible Contributions: floor, beam.

Background: Jana Bieger was one of the Big Four (along with Liukin, Chellsie Memmel, and Sacramone) at the beginning of the quad. A solid all-arounder, her career highlight was taking home the silver in the all around at 2006 worlds, after neither Memmel or Liukin could compete due to injury. This placement was controversial, of course, given that this was the competition where Vanessa Ferrari (Italy) won the all around with a fall, despite Jana and the rest of the top five all hitting four for four. In 2007, however, Jana suffered an ankle injury and basically looked terrible all year, including a dismal performance at Nationals that left her of the worlds team entirely. In 2008, she's performed fairly consistently at both the Italy Meet and the Pacific Rim Championships, even taking gold on uneven bars in event finals at the latter after Nastia had a fall.

Analysis: Jana is, perhaps, the most dead even all arounder in the US. The problem being that she is solid (can break 15) on every event, but she does not stand out on any of them. She has the potential to do some insanely difficult tumbling on floor, but her injury has held her back a bit in that regard. Then there is the problem of her lackluster form and non-existent artistry. She gets almost uniformaly slammed on B-scores.

Outlook: Though she's looked good and solid during her comeback, Jana has pretty much proven herself as perfect alternate material. In an emergency she could be put up anywhere to adequately plug a hole, but she's not what you want when it ISN'T an emergency. She probably doesn't have much of a chance at the team proper unless there are injuries prior to selection.



Ashley Priess

Possible Contributions: bars.

Background: Priess was a member of the silver medal 2006 worlds team and went on to the all around final along with Jana Bieger after Chellsie Memmel was injured in team finals, though she didn't have a great competition and finished a ways out of the medals. After 2006 she pretty much dropped off the map entirely and only reappeared early this year when it was rumored that she had a bar routine out of a 7.0.

Analysis: That 7.0 routine has yet to materialize, but she's done one around a 6.7 or 6.8 at the recent small-basically-internal meet. But it didn't outscore Memmel's. Ashley also doesn't have a notable routine on anything but bars.

Outlook: Priess's chances probably rest entirely on who she can outscore on bars. Given the fact that it's the only event on which she's useable, she'll definitely need to be top two (excluding Nastia) on that event if she wants a shot at the team. Preferably, she should try to ensure that no one BUT Nastia surpasses her.


Now some longshots!


Mattie Larson - New senior. She made a splash as a junior last year at Junior Pan Ams when she won the all around, and led a US sweep of all the gold medals. Larson is an extremely pretty gymnast, but it's doubtful whether she has the difficulty or the consistency to really be a contender for a spot.

Olivia Courtney - New senior. She was part of the Junior Pan Ams team that cleaned up last year, though she wasn't one of the major players. She also got the assignment to the Italy meet this year indicating that someone is at least thinking about her, if not for the Olympics for next quad. Doesn't really have the difficulty or the numbers, but who knows.

Darlene Hill - Second tier national team member. Darlene has gotten attention recently due to her power and her selection for the Pacific Rim. However, injuries have kept her from competing bars, one of her better events and her best chance to get on the team, and it's unlikely that a relative unknown with only one major international competition under her belt will make the Olympic team. Especially since there are so many other options for floor, which would be her other possible contribution.

Chelsea Davis - New senior. She's really only on here because she's coached by Kim Zmeskal and Martha Karoyli recently mentioned her by name when discussing Olympic prospects. Some think this was just to put the fear of God into some other gymnasts.

Randi Stageberg - Second tier senior. In 2006 she tied Alicia Sacramone for the national floor title and recently at the US Classic, she scored a 15.3 on that event. It might be enough to make someone pay attention.

And that's about it! If anyone else seriously shows up in the consideration it would be a massive surprise.


Who will join them?

We'll start to have a better idea very, very soon.


US National Championships air Saturday June 7th on NBC from 4-6PM. ACTUALLY live. But check your local listings if you're not on the east coast because who knows what they'll do. Because they're airing Day Two live, there won't be any Day One coverage at all. Whether they'll put the entire competition upon on the NBC Olympics site remains to be seen, but I'll certainly let you know if they do!